THE PRICE OF A HOLD

Friday, 01 May 2026

The Bank of England kept rates at 3.75% yesterday. That decision wasn't made for you. But you're paying for it.

The Bank of England voted 8-1 on Wednesday to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%. The one dissenting voice was Chief Economist Huw Pill. He wanted a rise to 4%.

This is the third consecutive hold. Before the Iran war disrupted global energy markets, the Bank had been widely expected to cut rates twice in 2026. Those cuts are off the table now. UK inflation hit 3.3% in March. The Bank's own modelling says it could peak at 6.2% in early 2027 under its worst-case scenario. Several MPC members signalled they're prepared to vote for hikes at future meetings.

For the Nigerian in the UK, this decision lands in two places at once.

The first is the monthly outgoing. If you're renting, your landlord's mortgage costs haven't dropped. That means your rent hasn't dropped either. The rate hold extends that pressure. If you have a variable-rate mortgage yourself, you already know what 3.75% means in practice. The two rate cuts that were supposed to ease things this year aren't happening.

The second place it lands is across the Atlantic. Nigeria's inflation rose to 15.38% in March. That's the first increase in twelve months. Food costs are up. Transport costs are up more sharply. The people you're sending money home to are living their own squeeze. So you're transferring from a position of higher costs in London, to people absorbing higher costs in Lagos or Abuja or wherever home is.

The Bank's reasoning is straightforward. Oil prices above $100 a barrel are feeding through to UK petrol, energy bills, and food logistics. Monetary policy can't fix a war. What it can do is try to stop the inflation from becoming permanent, which means not cutting rates until the picture is clearer.

The Bank put its position clearly in its statement. Monetary policy can't influence energy prices but will be set to ensure that any inflationary adjustment happens in a way consistent with the 2% target over time.

That's the Bank's job. Your job, in the meantime, is to manage the gap between what you earn and what everything costs. Nobody decided that gap on your behalf. It just arrived.

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Publishing Editor: Adeyemi EKO

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