The state is telling Muslim Nigerians to celebrate Eid-el-Kabir quietly, in small gatherings, and close to an exit.

On Monday, the Headquarters Joint Task Force for the North-East issued a security advisory. Credible intelligence, the advisory said, indicates Boko Haram and ISWAP may attempt attacks on civilian targets during the Eid celebrations. Suicide bombers. Improvised explosive devices. Densely populated areas. Prayer grounds.

Residents were told to avoid open gatherings where possible. Conduct prayers close to home. Stay away from markets, motor parks, and banking halls during the celebrations. Report suspicious persons or unattended objects immediately.

The government declared the two-day Eid public holiday. Then the military told people how to survive it.

This is not the first time. Sallah 2024 carried similar warnings. The pattern is consistent enough that the advisory itself has become part of the festival preparation in the North-East. Before you choose where to pray, you assess the risk calculation.

The military says it has already deployed troops and surveillance assets across vulnerable locations. It says the threats have been thoroughly anticipated. That may be true.

But the fact that it needs to be said, every year, during the same festival, in the same region, tells you something the announcement doesn't say. Seventeen years since Boko Haram's insurgency began in Maiduguri. Multiple military operations. Countless declarations of progress. And on the morning of Eid 2026, a father in Borno State is making a decision about whether his family prays at the mosque or in the sitting room.

The military can deploy troops. It cannot deploy the security that's been absent long enough for the absence to feel normal.