On Tuesday the World Bank raised its forecast for Nigeria's 2026 growth to 4.3 per cent. 2025 was 4.0. 2027 and 2028, 4.4. The National Bureau of Statistics had the economy 4.43 per cent bigger in the second quarter than a year earlier.

Good news? Partly. The number counts the economy's total output. It doesn't count who earns it.

The Bank adds a caution. Nigeria's growth isn't producing enough productive jobs to cut poverty much, it says. Its country overview estimates more than 60 per cent of Nigerians lived below the national poverty line in 2025. Poor households spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food.

And prices? The same update expects inflation to fall from 23.0 per cent in 2025 to 15.7 per cent in 2026. Falling inflation is still rising prices.

If a basket of goods costs 15.7 per cent more over the year, ₦100,000 of shopping becomes ₦115,700. For a family relying on money sent from abroad, that's the gap to close. It's an illustration of the forecast, not a prediction of anyone's shopping bill.

And 1.8 per cent? That's per-person income growth for sub-Saharan Africa, not Nigeria. The Bank expects it to rise from 1.6 per cent in 2025. A per-person figure for Nigeria isn't in the reports cited.

The forecast says the economy is growing. It doesn't say what a household can buy.