The Central Bank of Nigeria’s September surveys point in opposite directions. The business reading rose, and the household reading fell.

The CBN’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.0 in September from 52.7 in August. That is a fourth straight month above 50, which the CBN counts as expansion. Twenty-three of 32 subsectors grew and nine shrank.

Two days later the CBN’s Household Expectations Survey put overall consumer sentiment at minus 18.7, down from minus 9.9 in August. Buying intentions were negative for houses at minus 68.2, cars at minus 67.3 and investments at minus 50.7. The CBN said buying conditions stayed unfavourable at all three horizons it surveys.

The share of households calling inflation high rose to 77.2 per cent from 67.2 per cent. The National Bureau of Statistics put headline inflation at 15.39 per cent in August, down from 15.43 per cent in July.

The household survey’s other readings were also negative. The economic conditions index stood at minus 21.5, family finances at minus 23.9 and family income at minus 10.5.

Inside the business survey, prices moved apart. The composite input price index rose 0.8 points while the output price index fell 0.5 points. One reading of the report says input prices rose faster than output prices in services and agriculture. A month earlier the picture ran the other way. In August the input index fell 0.2 points and the output index rose 1.0 point. The CBN said services and agriculture then had faster rises in output prices than in input costs.

The CBN’s Business Expectations Survey put business confidence at 13.4, a slight fall from August. Firms named multiple taxation at 67.1, insecurity at 66.2 and high interest rates at 64.3 as their biggest constraints. Among firms with a positive outlook, 29.3 per cent credited increased demand.

The surveys ask different people different questions. The August PMI report said it covered 1,900 purchasing and supply executives, and the CBN noted that it reflects respondents’ views and not the bank’s own position. The household survey measures expectations and perceptions, not household spending itself.

Neither survey says how many of the surveyed households buy from the surveyed firms. Neither says whether the squeeze in the PMI’s price indices reaches the shelf prices households report.

Households expect sentiment to turn positive at plus 7.1 in six months. Firms project confidence of 23.6 in December and 36.1 by March 2027. Both groups are forecasting a better position. Neither survey says which group gets there first.