Tuesday 14 April, 2026

The World Bank says suspending import licences handed a single company the right to set your fuel price.

In February 2026, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority suspended import licences for petrol. The stated reason was that local refining capacity had reached the point where it could meet national demand. Nigeria didn't need to import anymore.

That decision put Dangote's refinery in the position of being the country's only significant petrol supplier.

The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update named what that position costs you. As of March, Nigeria's ex-depot petrol price was approximately N1,275 per litre. The equivalent import-parity price, what petrol would cost if Nigeria could buy it from the global market freely, was around N1,122 per litre. That's a gap of 12%. Every litre of petrol you buy right now costs you 12% more than it would under competitive supply.

Think about what that means in practice. If you fill a 50-litre tank, you're paying roughly N7,650 extra compared to what a competitive market would charge. If you run a generator, if you transport goods, if you pay for fuel-dependent services. That 12% sits somewhere in every transaction you make.

The Trade Union Congress has already warned that petrol could hit N2,000 per litre without a correction. Dangote's refinery has reportedly threatened to export all its production if import licences aren't fully shut down. The logic is simple. If other suppliers can enter the market, the refinery loses pricing power. If it can export, it gets global prices. The refinery is Nigeria's largest private investment. Dangote has every incentive to protect its market position. That's not a criticism. It's what any business does.

The problem is that the government's job is to protect consumers, not the investor.

The government removed fuel subsidies in 2023 to end market distortion. The policy that followed handed the market to one supplier instead. The distortion didn't disappear. It changed shape.

Six marketers did receive fresh import licences in recent weeks, after supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.That's a partial opening. But the structure that produced the 12% gap is still in place. One dominant supplier. No sustained competition.

Tinubu has said repeatedly that he hears Nigerians on fuel prices. The problem isn't that he can't hear. The problem is that one of the loudest voices in that conversation owns the refinery.