Dangote has a monopoly. The government gave it to him. Now nobody can stop the price.

This isn't really a war story.

Yes, the Iran-US conflict pushed global crude prices up. Yes, Dangote Refinery hiked its gantry price three times in one week — from ₦774 to ₦995 per litre — blaming global market volatility. Pump prices across Nigeria are now crossing ₦1,000. Your transport fare went up. Your market prices went up. Your generator bill went up. Everything connected to fuel just moved.

But here's the machinery the war story is hiding.

Dangote Refinery only receives five crude cargoes a month from NNPC, not the thirteen it needs under the naira-for-crude deal the government promised. So the refinery buys the rest on global markets — at international prices. When global prices spike, Nigerian prices spike. The domestic refinery that was supposed to protect you from global shocks is directly exposed to them.

It gets worse. About 90% of marketers who applied for PMS import licences this year were denied — specifically to protect Dangote's market position. There's no competitor to discipline pricing. No import alternative to create pressure. Just one refinery, repricing freely, with government cover.

The refinery that was sold to Nigerians as the cure for fuel dependence is still buying crude internationally, still setting prices at will, and still operating as the only player in the market. The government created the monopoly, won't enforce the naira-for-crude deal it agreed to, and blocked the imports that would provide competition.

JPMorgan warns Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel if Middle East disruptions continue. Qatar's energy minister says it could hit $150. NNPC is now scrambling to source foreign crude for the refinery — and officials are warning it won't bring prices down quickly.

Every Nigerian who takes a bus, runs a generator, or buys food transported by truck is paying for this arrangement. Not because of the war. Because of the structure the government built.