The Philippines can't refuel abroad. Nigeria's airfares are heading to ₦240,000.

The President of the Philippines told Bloomberg on Tuesday that several countries have told Philippine airlines they can't refuel their aircraft at destination airports. The airlines have to load enough fuel to fly there and back. On long-haul routes, that's a structural problem. You carry more weight. You burn more fuel carrying the weight. The economics break down fast. Marcos called grounding planes "a distinct possibility."

Nigeria isn't the Philippines. But the story behind that story is the same one playing out here.

Jet A1 aviation fuel in Nigeria went from ₦900–995 per litre before the Iran war to ₦2,500–2,700 per litre this week.Nigerian airlines are absorbing the difference. They've said publicly they can't sustain it. Analysts project Lagos-Abuja fares moving from ₦195,000 toward ₦240,000–245,000 in the coming days. The Tuesday edition already noted this. What the Philippines story adds is the global dimension.

This is a supply chain crisis, not a pricing dispute. The Middle East war removed reliable refuelling access for airlines across Asia. Vietnam is adding surcharges from April. The Philippines is importing Russian crude for the first time in five years just to maintain supply. Countries with alternatives are scrambling to use them.

Nigeria's alternatives are narrower. There's no domestic jet fuel production at scale. Dangote Refinery sources crude internationally at $100 a barrel and doesn't produce Jet A1 in volumes that matter for the sector. The petrol import license freeze in early March removed the buffer that might have softened this. When the shock hit, there was nothing to absorb it with.

Your Lagos-Abuja ticket is going up. The reason isn't bad luck. It's architecture.