Aviation fuel is approaching N3,000 per litre. When some airlines stop flying, everyone pays.

The regulator responsible for monitoring aviation fuel prices in Nigeria hasn't acted. That's the sentence THISDAY buried inside a front-page report this morning.

Jet A1 now ranges from ₦2,690 per litre in Lagos to ₦2,990 in Kano, with indications it crosses ₦3,000 today. The CEO of Aero Contractors, Captain Ado Sanusi, was unambiguous. If nothing is done, some airlines will stop operations. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the body mandated to ensure transparent pricing of petroleum products, has not stepped in. Sanusi said the agency was not doing its job. "Given the responsibility of monitoring and regulating these prices," he said, "it is not doing its work."

Before the Iran war started on February 28, Jet A1 sold for ₦900 to ₦995 per litre. It has now more than doubled. Airlines have absorbed the cost by holding fares around ₦195,000 for a one-hour domestic flight. They can't hold much longer.

The mechanism is specific. Global crude has jumped from $65–$69 to roughly $112 per barrel following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Jet fuel accounts for 30 to 35 percent of airline operating costs in normal conditions. Right now it has climbed to 45 percent of costs at some carriers. Sanusi noted that the global crude price rose 30 percent but Nigerian aviation fuel rose 50 percent. That 20-point excess above global movement is a domestic pricing problem sitting on top of an international one.

Nigeria has also been unable to supply enough crude to the Dangote Refinery, forcing the refinery to import crude at $112 per barrel. That is ₦154 billion in crude imports per day that Nigeria produces the underlying commodity for. The country is paying to import what it extracts.

The reader stake isn't abstract. Air travel in Nigeria isn't a luxury for the people who depend on it. It's how a trader in Lagos gets to Kano. It's how a family in Abuja reaches an elderly parent in Owerri. It's how medical staff move between cities when roads take twelve hours.

Industry estimates already project a 20 to 25 percent fare increase in the coming days. On a current ₦195,000 ticket, that means fares hitting ₦240,000 to ₦245,000 before the end of next week. If fuel crosses ₦3,000 per litre, some carriers will suspend routes entirely. When that happens, the routes don't get absorbed by competitors. The capacity simply disappears. The person who can't afford ₦400,000 for a one-hour flight takes the road. The road has its own costs.

The NMDPRA has a mandate. The mandate is clear. Pricing transparency for petroleum products is its brief.

It's not doing its work.