President doubles down on policies that collapsed purchasing power

President Tinubu met World Bank officials Tuesday and delivered his economic reform message: "We have our hands on the plough, and we're never going to look back."

World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Nigeria as a "global reference point" for reform steadiness, noting that many countries reverse course when reforms get difficult. Tinubu hasn't. He removed fuel subsidies, unified exchange rates, and weathered the inflation spike that followed.

The World Bank loves this. International investors appreciate the policy clarity. Global financial institutions cite Nigeria's commitment.

And Nigerians? They're watching their purchasing power collapse while being told this pain is necessary for long-term gain.

What "Staying the Course" Actually Means

May 2023: Tinubu announces fuel subsidy removal. Petrol prices jump from ₦195 to over ₦600 per litre overnight.

June 2023: Foreign exchange unification. Naira crashes from around ₦450 to over ₦700 to the dollar.

The combined shock triggers inflation surge. Food prices double. Transport costs triple. Businesses collapse. Purchasing power evaporates.

Today: Tinubu tells the World Bank inflation "has come down dramatically" and naira is "stable." He's technically correct—inflation dropped from 34% peak to around 28%. But prices haven't fallen; they've just stopped rising as fast. Everything costs roughly twice what it did 20 months ago, and wages haven't kept pace.

"Stable" means the bleeding slowed. It doesn't mean the wound healed.

The Reform Paradox

Here's what Tinubu got right: fuel subsidy was unsustainable, draining ₦4 trillion annually through a system captured by marketers and middlemen. Multiple exchange rates created arbitrage opportunities that enriched insiders while starving the formal economy of foreign currency.

Ending both made economic sense. The problem isn't the diagnosis; it's the implementation and sequencing.

You don't remove life support systems without ensuring the patient can survive on their own. Tinubu removed subsidies without functional palliatives. He unified exchange rates without production capacity to stabilise currency through exports. He imposed shock therapy without the social safety nets that make reform survivable.

The World Bank sees "steadiness." Nigerians experience freefall.

Who Benefits From This "Success"

Bjerde outlined the World Bank's forthcoming Country Partnership Framework: $17 billion in public financing, $5 billion in private sector support through IFC, $500 million in investment guarantees. All aligned with Nigeria's goal of hitting $1 trillion GDP and 7% growth.

That money flows to infrastructure, agriculture mechanisation, digital initiatives, and human capital development. It supports projects, not people.

Meanwhile, 133 million Nigerians live in multidimensional poverty—a number that grew since reforms began. Another 40 million face acute food insecurity. Minimum wage negotiations stalled as unions demand ₦250,000 to match pre-reform purchasing power.

The reform Tinubu won't reverse is making life harder for the Nigerians it was supposedly meant to help.

The Agricultural Promise

Tinubu talked mechanisation Tuesday. Zonal centres to support farmers. Improved seedlings. Leveraging petrochemical output for fertiliser production. Transitioning smallholders to large cooperatives.

It's the same agricultural transformation promise Nigeria has made for 40 years. Mechanisation centres that lack machines. Fertiliser subsidies captured by political distributors. Cooperatives that exist on paper while farmers still work subsistence plots.

Tinubu asked the World Bank: "How do we help farmers move from small-scale holders to huge cooperatives that can bring opportunity to Nigerians?"

Here's the answer Nigeria won't hear: you can't build agricultural transformation on top of policy-induced poverty. When farmers can't afford inputs because inflation gutted their savings, when transport costs make market access uneconomical, when insecurity prevents them from accessing their land—mechanisation centres won't help.

The "No Turning Back" Trap

Bjerde praised Tinubu for not reversing course when implementation got difficult. But steadiness without adaptation isn't leadership—it's stubbornness.

Effective reform requires constant calibration. When policies produce unintended consequences, you adjust. When suffering exceeds projections, you intervene. When the cure proves worse than the disease, you rethink the prescription.

"No turning back" sounds principled. It can also mean refusing to acknowledge failure, doubling down on ideology while people suffer, mistaking rigidity for resolve.

Nigeria needs economic reform. But reform that increases poverty while promising future prosperity isn't working—it's extractive. And refusing to reverse course on extractive policy isn't strength; it's indifference to the human cost of economic experimentation.

The World Bank will continue praising Nigeria's reform consistency. International investors will appreciate the policy clarity. And 200 million Nigerians will keep paying the price of being a "global reference point" for reforms that benefit everyone except them.