Friday 17 April, 2026

Nigerian airlines have a Monday deadline. The government has been notified. It has not responded.

On Monday, April 20, three days from today, Nigerian domestic airlines may suspend all operations. The Airline Operators of Nigeria issued that warning in a letter dated April 14. It was addressed to fuel marketers and copied to President Tinubu, the Vice President, the Minister of Aviation, and the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority.

The reason is the price of Jet A1. Aviation fuel cost ₦900 per litre at the end of February. By mid-April it was ₦3,300. A rise of more than 300% in less than two months. Aviation fuel now accounts for over 40% of airline operating costs. The AON says airlines can no longer cover fuel expenses from ticket revenue, let alone any other cost. One carrier has already grounded all operations since March 13.

The fuel marketers say the rise is driven by the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. They also dispute the ₦3,300 figure, saying the gantry price from the Dangote Refinery was ₦1,799 per litre this week. The airlines and the marketers are citing different numbers for the same product. That dispute has not been resolved. The deadline is Monday.

What the government has not done is respond. The letter was sent four days ago. There is no public statement from the Ministry of Aviation, no emergency engagement with marketers, no indication the deadline will be averted through intervention.

This is not the first time Nigeria's aviation sector has reached this point. In 2022, airlines faced a different but related crisis. Forex restrictions meant they couldn't repatriate ticket revenue. Foreign carriers threatened to exit the market. The government held rounds of meetings and produced partial relief after months of pressure. The underlying infrastructure was not changed. The sector carried the scar into every year that followed.

What is different now is the speed. The 2022 crisis built over months. This one moved from ₦900 to ₦3,300 in seven weeks. The AON letter is not a negotiating position. It is a notice. The association is telling the government that the timetable for intervention has already passed.

The person this lands on most immediately is not a business traveller. It is anyone who depends on domestic aviation for work they cannot do remotely. The lecturer who flies between campuses. The trader moving goods between cities. The family using a Abuja-Lagos flight that costs the same as three days of wages. A shutdown does not pause their obligations. It just removes the option they had budgeted for.

A domestic shutdown means cargo stops alongside passengers. Business travel collapses onto road networks already under pressure. The same logic produced this crisis. Infrastructure that was never fixed when the cost was manageable. That logic is running in the electricity sector, in the petrol market, and now in aviation. When the break comes, the state gets a formal letter.

Monday will answer what the letter left open.