Nigeria signed its biggest mining deal ever. Watch the groundbreaking date.

The federal government and the Africa Finance Corporation signed a $1.3 billion deal on Sunday to build an alumina refinery, launch a national minerals mapping programme, and create an investment vehicle to fund exploration.

The numbers are genuinely large. The refinery would process one million tonnes of bauxite annually. Projected contribution: $1.2 billion to GDP every year. $25 billion over its 20-year lifetime. 15,000 jobs, direct and indirect.

This is what economic diversification looks like when it's not just a speech.

The real question is whether it's more than a signing ceremony. Nigeria has a history of landmark mining announcements that move slowly from MOU to groundbreaking to operation. The Ajaokuta Steel Complex was conceived in the 1970s and has never been fully operational. The Dangote refinery took years beyond its announced completion dates.

Alumina processing requires sustained gas supply, functioning rail infrastructure to move bauxite from mining sites, and a regulatory environment that doesn't change rules mid-project. All three are currently complicated in Nigeria.

Worth watching. Worth not celebrating yet.