Thursday April 09, 2026

What is Nigeria negotiating, and with whom?

This week, three things happened outside Nigeria that changed things inside Nigeria.

Trump and Iran agreed a ceasefire, and the oil price that was quietly filling Nigerian government accounts dropped 15% overnight. The US State Department updated its travel list and authorised some of its own staff to leave Abuja. And Nigeria's trade with the US sits under a 15% surcharge Trump imposed in February after the Supreme Court struck down his original tariffs, with AGOA technically renewed but its benefits largely overridden.

In each case, Nigeria received the news. It didn't shape it.

The ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan. The surcharge was a presidential workaround after a court struck down the original tariffs. The travel advisory was updated by officials in Washington reading security reports. Nigeria's government issued responses to all three. Diplomatic, measured, reassuring.

Here's the question I can't shake this week.

What does Nigeria actually want from any of these situations? Not what Tinubu says in a statement. Not what a minister tells a journalist. What Nigeria actually wants, stated clearly, argued for, traded for, brought to any table with something concrete behind it.

On the US trade surcharge, Nigeria's response has been to say it won't retaliate and will focus on diversification. That's a posture for a country that's decided it can't negotiate. On the ceasefire, Nigeria wasn't invited. On the US Embassy retreat, Abuja refuted the security characterisation. Washington left anyway.

There's a version of Nigerian foreign policy that uses the country's scale. Africa's largest economy, most populous nation, biggest oil producer. A country that can say, here's what we want, here's what we're offering, here's what changes if you don't engage us properly. That version of Nigeria exists in the speeches. It's harder to find in the outcomes.

The absence isn't just about this week. Nigeria has had no permanent ambassador in Washington since Tinubu recalled all ambassadors in September 2023. That vacancy matters. When a crisis arrives, the diplomatic infrastructure to manage it is already thin. You can't negotiate from a room you've left empty.

The 15% US surcharge runs until late July. That's roughly how long the Iran ceasefire window runs before both sides decide whether to hold it or break it. Both clocks are running at the same time. The question isn't whether Nigeria can absorb whatever comes next. It probably can. Nigerians are expert at absorbing what comes next. The question is what Nigeria is doing, specifically and deliberately, in the time it has.

The answer will be written in Abuja, not in Washington or Tehran. That's still true, even when it doesn't feel like it.