Wednesday 1 April, 2026

That was the Dangote Refinery's petrol gantry price in December 2025, the number celebrated as proof that domestic refining could make fuel affordable in Nigeria.

By 27 March 2026, the same refinery was selling at N1,285 per litre at the gantry. Retail pump prices peaked at N1,332 to N1,367. Five separate hikes in a single month.

That is an 84 percent increase in four months.

The translation is this. Nigeria's 2026 budget was priced on a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. Crude crossed $110 this month as the Middle East conflict intensified. Every naira of that gap was passed to you. Not to the government. Not to the refinery's shareholders. To the person paying to move, eat, or run a business.

Nigeria recorded the largest petrol price increase in Africa between February and March 2026. The increase was more than double that of Egypt, the next highest on the continent.

The partial rollback on 31 March means the gantry is back at N1,200. Filling stations are at N1,280 to N1,296. That is still 72 percent above where the price was in December.

The number to carry from this week is not the current price. It is the distance. N699 to N1,285. Four months. One refinery. No buffer.

The reason your transport fare went up, the reason market prices shifted, the reason your generator budget has collapsed since January. It is not abstract. It is this architecture. A deregulated market, a single dominant supplier, no stabilisation mechanism, and a war in a region Nigeria has no influence over. That is the price of petrol in Nigeria in 2026. Every naira of it.

The partial rollback gives back some ground. It does not change the architecture that produced the climb.