Tuesday 14 April, 2026

The government committed to settling a decade of power debt. The electricity still isn't there. Here's the problem.

President Tinubu approved N3.3 trillion to clear Nigeria's power sector debts.

You probably haven't noticed any difference in your electricity supply.

That gap is the story.

The Nigerian power sector has been accumulating unpaid bills since 2013. Distribution companies collect revenue from consumers. That revenue isn't enough to cover the cost of electricity they receive. The shortfall passes up the chain to generating companies. Generating companies fall behind on payments to gas suppliers. Gas suppliers reduce deliveries. Less gas means fewer megawatts. Nigeria has been running that cycle for over a decade. It is the machine that keeps the lights off.

Fifteen power generation companies have signed agreements. N501 billion has been raised through a bond. N223 billion has already been disbursed. The government calls this a full and final settlement of debts accumulated between 2015 and 2025.

The Association of Power Generation Companies says the actual figure owed is closer to N6 to N7 trillion. They say they were not included in the verification process. They're asking whether N3.3 trillion is a different number from the N4 trillion Tinubu reportedly approved in a meeting in 2024. Or a subset of it.

But the deeper problem isn't which number is correct. The problem is that settling the old debt doesn't fix what creates the new debt. Distribution companies are still collecting less revenue than the cost of electricity they're distributing. The pricing structure is the same. The deficit will accumulate again from the moment the settlement lands.

Electricity available to distribution companies was 5,000 megawatts in 2025. By April 3 this year, it had fallen to 3,345 megawatts. That's not a settlement problem. That's a gas supply problem. Generating companies that haven't been paid in full are still not paying their gas suppliers in full. The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update confirmed the same thing. Electricity generation has declined even as the bailout discussions concluded.

None of this means the settlement is wrong. It's necessary. But a debt payment without a pricing reform is just the beginning of the next debt.

If your generator has been running more than usual this month, that's why. The debt is being settled in Abuja. The machine that creates it is still running in your neighbourhood.