Inflation is 15%. Go price beans in Oyingbo today.

Nigeria's headline inflation figure fell to 15.06% in February 2026. That number has been celebrated in CBN press releases and cited in government briefings as proof that the hard reforms are working.

Go to Mile 12 market and ask.

A Nairametrics Research physical market survey across Mushin, Daleko, Mile 12, and Oyingbo in March found that 43 of 68 tracked food items are more expensive this month than last. In February, only 23 items were going up. The survey found only 13 price declines, down from 35 in February. February had looked like a turning point. March reversed it almost entirely.

The mechanism is petrol. Pump prices climbed from around N875 to N960 per litre in late February. That increase moved directly into transport costs, which moved directly into what traders charged at the gate, which moved directly into what you paid at the stall. The chain takes about two weeks. It has no mercy.

"The cost of moving goods from the North has gone up significantly," a transporter at Mile 12 told Nairametrics. "Even loading charges have increased because everything depends on fuel."

Nigeria's food supply runs on roads. The roads run on petrol. Petrol prices in Nigeria are still indexed to a global oil market currently sitting at around $114 per barrel, the highest in nearly two years. The Dangote refinery is producing. The supply chain still responds to international prices. Reform at the monetary level takes months to arrive at the farm gate. Reform at the pump arrives the same afternoon.

Beans near doubled in a month. A 50kg bag of rice runs between N90,000 and N110,000. A paint bucket of garri is approaching N2,000.

The 15% figure isn't wrong. It measures a basket of goods, weighted and averaged across an economy. It does not measure the teacher in Iyana Ipaja who skipped buying beans this week because the price jumped and the month isn't over. She's not in the basket. She's doing the math on every trip out. Every movement now has a fuel calculation attached to it.

The CBN is winning. The kitchen hasn't heard yet.