Five words. That's all I posted in the group. "Man City are on the up."

I don't know why I said it. I wasn't trying to be clever. I was on the sofa, watching the match, and it just felt true. Two minutes later, I turned out to be right in a way I didn't want.

I took out the loan in August. Season ticket. The Wembley trip was booked in February, the moment we beat Chelsea in the semi. I've already paid for everything that happened today.

The memes started at full time. Twenty people. Ten of them Arsenal. And the City fans, the United lot, even the one quiet Spurs supporter — they all found their voices at exactly the same moment. Twenty years of WhatsApp and I know the pattern: the group is only this loud when we lose.

This is the week the season stops being about the table and starts being about the nerve.

Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City — Carabao Cup Final, Wembley, 22 March 2026

We were the better side for 45 minutes. Then it flipped the way it always does — not City brilliance, just one mistake, then another, and suddenly the game was gone. Kepa dropped it. O'Reilly headed in. Four minutes later, same channel, 2-0. The rest was Arsenal knocking on a door that had already been locked.

2-0. City's ninth Carabao Cup. Arteta's only trophy as Arsenal manager: the 2020 FA Cup. Six years ago. Behind closed doors. No fans.

None of which changes the league table. Arsenal sit nine points clear going into the international break, having played one game more. City have a game in hand. They also have us at the Etihad in April.

The table is still right. But the table doesn't tell you how a group of twenty people behaves at full time on a Sunday.

Seven games left. Nine points. Win five and the title is almost certainly ours. The maths is fine. Belief is the thing today tested.

Bournemouth at home after the break. They beat us home and away last season. Then Newcastle. Then City away on April 18. If City win their game in hand before then and take three points at the Etihad, the gap goes from nine to three. One afternoon. Everything changes.

Because that's what a trophy in March does. It doesn't just go in the cabinet — it changes the temperature of a club. City came into today being told their rebuild was messy, their manager might be leaving, their best years were behind them. They leave Wembley with silverware, a crowd singing, and Guardiola contracted for another season. That's a different dressing room walking into the Etihad in April.

What it does to Arsenal is the other side of the same coin. It plants the doubt. Not loud — quiet. The kind that sits in the back of your mind at 2-0 down in a cup final and asks: are we the team that does this, or the team that lets it happen to them?

The numbers still say we win this. But with today's performance, you can understand why the fans are still doubtful.

The rest of the weekend: Liverpool lost. Brighton beat them 2-1 on Saturday — their third dropped points in five games. They're not a threat right now. Chelsea beat Everton 3-0. United drew 2-2 at Bournemouth. Still third. Still dangerous against top-six opposition.

The last time Arsenal were at Wembley in a final was the 2020 FA Cup. We beat Chelsea 2-1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored twice. I watched that one on a laptop because there were no fans allowed. Nineteen months later Aubameyang was gone. I mention it only because this club has a talent for making the good things feel smaller and the bad things feel larger than they are. I'm trying not to do that tonight.

I know exactly what I'm supposed to think. Nine points. A game more played. I know the rational version of this.

What I can't stop thinking about is 2023. Eight points clear. April arriving like it owed us something. The Etihad. The loan I finished paying back in July.

My son called after the final whistle. Said nothing for a few seconds, then: "We're still nine clear, Dad." He's right. He usually is. I didn't say anything back.

I'll start paying this loan off in full by July. Same as every year. The direct debit goes out regardless of how this ends.

The group is still loud tonight. The City fans. The United supporters. Even Tunde, who I haven't heard from in weeks, managed to find a GIF.

I posted five words before the game. I'll post five more at full time of the Etihad match in April.

It won't be a prediction. It'll just be what I feel. Same as every year. The payment goes out whether we win it or not.