ISWAP attacked a state capital before sunrise. This is what a security vacuum looks like.

Maiduguri isn't a frontline village. It's a city of over a million people, the capital of Borno State, the administrative and commercial heart of the northeast. When gunfire and explosions ring out in its residential neighborhoods at midnight, something has gone badly wrong.

That's what happened in the early hours of today, Monday March 16. ISWAP fighters attacked Dala, Bulamari, and Ajilari Cross, residential areas in the city, from 12:35 a.m. Military and police reinforcements moved in. By morning the police spokesperson confirmed it was a terrorist attack. A resident near Pompommari Bypass told Punch he heard it clearly from his house. "Boko Haram members are exchanging gunfire with security personnel," he said. "All of us are outside now."

To understand why this happened today, you need to know what happened in early March.

Between March 4 and March 8, ISWAP conducted some of the most coordinated attacks on Nigerian military positions in years. They struck four army bases simultaneously: Mainok, Jakana, Marte, and Konduga. They overran a base in Ngoshe, Gwoza LGA, killed soldiers, burned armored vehicles, and drove away with large quantities of ammunition. More than 300 civilians were abducted, mostly women and children. A military source told Sahara Reporters that over 40 soldiers were killed in those attacks. The Army Chief flew to Maiduguri, met with commanders, promised an intensified response, and left.

The attacks kept coming. On March 8, another base in Kukawa was hit. Vehicles burned. Casualties unknown. A security analyst warned last week that ISWAP now has seized enough weapons and momentum that an attack on Maiduguri city itself was the logical next move.

Today, the prediction became the news.

The pattern here isn't just a security failure. It's a specific kind of failure: an institution that is visibly losing ground, that responds to each loss with statements and visits rather than strategy, and that has now allowed an insurgent group to reach the state capital. The bases that fell weren't poorly defended outposts. They were part of an operational network that has been holding for years. When they fall, and ISWAP walks away with the weapons inside them, the next attack is better armed than the last.

That's what happened in Maiduguri this morning. The weapons ISWAP took in early March were used in the city tonight.