On 19 September, the President listed places where he said fares are lower. The examples come from different arrangements, and the figures are government-reported.

The President’s list of lower fares doesn’t describe one thing. It describes at least three. TNL has grouped them by arrangement. The grouping is not the President’s.

The first group needs no private operator. In Kaduna, 100 CNG buses are free on major routes. In Plateau, government-supported buses carry about 13,000 commuters a day at ₦200, against more than ₦500 commercially. In Abia, 40 electric buses have fares subsidised by 50 per cent.

The second group depends on which vehicle a passenger boards. In Abuja, CNG-converted vehicles in the NURTW partnership carry a 40 per cent reduction. Area 1 to Gwagwalada is down from ₦1,500 to ₦900. Nyanya is down from ₦700 to ₦420. Wuse is down from ₦400 to ₦240. Each works out at exactly 40 per cent. This is the arrangement a driver at Area 1 Motor Park told Leadership had not been communicated to him.

The third group comes without an operator. The President doesn’t say who runs these services. In Oyo, CNG buses deployed to Pacesetter Transport brought the Lagos to Ibadan fare from about ₦8,000 to ₦3,200 during the initial deployment, a fall of 60 per cent. In Adamawa, alternative-energy services cut fares by as much as 50 per cent, from ₦8,000 to ₦4,000. In Enugu, 100 CNG buses brought the Enugu to Nsukka fare from ₦2,500 to ₦1,500, a fall of 40 per cent. In Niger, the Suleja to Abuja service charges ₦550 against about ₦800, a fall of about 31 per cent. In Borno, CNG and electric services move commuters for ₦50 to ₦100 where commercial operators charge ₦300 to ₦600.

The figures don’t measure the same thing. Kaduna’s 3.2 million passengers and more than ₦3.5 billion saved are programme figures reported by the President, and not an independent audit. Borno’s and Plateau’s compare a bus service with commercial operators, and not the same vehicle before and after. Oyo’s is limited to the initial deployment.

Two routes on the list cross a boundary. Lagos to Ibadan runs from Lagos State into Oyo State. Suleja is in Niger State and Abuja is in the Federal Capital Territory. In August, the President described intra-state transport as the place where state governments hold the levers.

The list gives examples of lower fares the President says are already operating. It doesn’t establish that the same fare applies to every vehicle on those routes today.