Arrivals from 2022 qualify in February 2027, unless the rules change.

On 15 September, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told the Home Affairs Committee that a large group who arrived in 2022 would qualify in February 2027 absent any change. Under the current rule, that is five years.

Something is meant to change. The Home Office proposal would raise the standard wait for indefinite leave to remain from five years to 10. Under the proposals, people who came through health and social care routes could face 15 years, and those who claimed benefits for over 12 months could face 20.

Home Office data reported by Prompt News shows Nigerians were granted 14,084 work visas in 2022. The figure was 5,119 in 2021 and 28,495 in 2023. Of the 49,498 granted between 2021 and the first quarter of 2026, 42,893 were on the Health and Care Worker route. Those are visa grants. They are not a headcount of who arrived in 2022 or who will qualify next February, because people change routes, arrive later or leave.

On Monday at Labour's conference in Liverpool, Mahmood said some have said elements of the reforms are not fair. She said the government would come to a position that balances fairness to those who came legally with fairness to British citizens. Several UK outlets read that as a signal she may soften the plan, including for people already in the country. Vanguard reports that the Home Office says no final decision has been made. The 10, 15 and 20 year periods have not been scrapped.

Mahmood told the committee that the rules that apply are the ones in force at the point of application, not the ones in force when you arrived. She called that long-settled case law and said immigration rules change twice a year. She said the government would set out its new settlement policy later this year, in good time before the 2022 arrivals qualify. She declined to give a date.

She also described what protection for people already in the UK could look like. The options range from passing certain groups through with no change, so they still qualify at five years, to different treatment for other groups over a longer period. She said that policy is still to be settled.

Labour MP Lewis Atkinson told her about a family he had met who felt unable to "properly put down roots". He said they were at five years and did not know whether they would need to find another job that carries a visa. Mahmood said she accepted that a lot of people are wondering which rules will apply to them.

So the date that counts is the day you apply. Which rules will be in force on that day has not been announced. The Home Secretary says the policy will be set out later this year.