On Monday, a government research institute said Nigeria's inflation is on track to reach single digits by 2028. The same week, a ram costs ₦900,000.

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research released its medium-term economic outlook this week. Headline inflation projected to fall from 15.15 percent in 2025 to 11.66 percent in 2026, then 7.86 percent in 2027, then 5.61 percent in 2028. Non-oil revenue expansion is driving recovery. Reforms are working. The direction of travel is right.

They're probably not wrong about the direction.

The problem is the gap between the direction and where you're standing right now. Single-digit inflation by 2028 is a model. A ₦450,000 ram on Eid 2026 is a price tag. Both can be true at the same time. Only one of them is happening in your pocket today.

This is Nigeria's recurring economic communication problem. The numbers are improving. The improvement isn't showing up in market stalls at the same pace it's showing up in spreadsheets. Food inflation, which is the inflation that matters most to most households, is still running above 20 percent in nearly a third of Nigerian states.

The medium-term outlook says 2027 will feel better. But 2027 is also an election year, which means every number that's published between now and then will carry political weight. The model says the data is moving in the right direction. The Sallah market says it hasn't arrived yet.

Both things are true at once. That's the part the press releases leave out.