If Nigeria ever decides to use its economic leverage against South Africa, these are the numbers it would be working with. The Senate President knew them. That's why he moved so fast.

When Oshiomhole said revoke MTN's licence, he wasn't making a symbolic gesture. He was naming an asset.

MTN Nigeria is the group's most profitable African subsidiary outside South Africa. Nigeria has over 80 million MTN subscribers. The company generated over N4 trillion in revenue last year from Nigerian consumers paying for data, calls, and mobile money services. That revenue flows to the MTN Group headquarters in Johannesburg. A portion flows into the accounts of the Public Investment Corporation, the South African state body that manages government employee pension funds and holds a major stake in MTN Group.

The practical translation: when a Nigerian buys N500 of airtime, part of that transaction eventually supports the retirement security of a South African civil servant. That's the relationship Oshiomhole wanted the Senate to see.

MultiChoice, which owns DSTV, is a separate but parallel story. Nigeria is MultiChoice's largest market outside South Africa, with over 3 million subscribers. Nigerian households pay monthly subscriptions for Compact, Premium, and Confam packages. That money goes to Cape Town. DSTV has no major production assets in Nigeria and repatriates its profits. The Nigerian subscriber base is not a partnership. It's a customer base.

Pull both markets simultaneously and MTN Group faces a revenue crisis. MultiChoice faces an existential one. The South African president would notice.

But there's a countervailing reality just as true. MTN Nigeria doesn't just extract revenue. It employs Nigerians. Thousands directly, and many more through the dealer network, agents, contractors, and logistics chains that make the network run. The customer care staff are Nigerian. The engineers maintaining the towers are Nigerian. The DSTV installers threading cables through your ceiling are Nigerian.

Nationalisation doesn't land on a South African boardroom first. It lands on those workers first. A licence revocation doesn't close an office in Johannesburg first. It closes a call centre in Lagos first.

What the Senate's decision actually protects is the existing arrangement. Nigeria provides the market. South Africa provides the capital. The terms of that relationship are set without reference to what happens to Nigerians in the townships of Johannesburg.

The diplomat lands in Pretoria. The condolence is offered. The company keeps billing.