Arsenal host Atletico Madrid tonight at the Emirates in the Champions League semi-final second leg. The tie is 1-1. Nothing is decided. But everything is in Arsenal's hands.

The first leg in Madrid ended 1-1, with both goals coming from the penalty spot. Gyokeres converted for Arsenal before half time. Julián Álvarez equalised in the second half after a Ben White handball. Arsenal were furious about a late VAR decision that overturned what looked like a second penalty for them. The frustration was real. But they go into tonight level, at home, in front of their own crowd.

Arsenal's home record this season in the Champions League is the reason Atletico will be cautious. Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at the Emirates in the league phase earlier this year. Simeone knows this ground.

What to expect tonight. Arsenal will press hard from the start. They need a goal and their crowd will demand urgency. Arteta has said it is in their hands. That language is deliberate. He is telling his players they do not need to be rescued. They need to do what they have already shown they can do at home.

Atletico will defend deep and look for Álvarez on the counter. Álvarez was a doubt after going off in Madrid but is expected to play. He and Griezmann will stay compact, wait for Arsenal to commit numbers forward, and try to catch them on the turn. This is Simeone's signature. He has taken Atletico to two Champions League finals with this approach.

Opta gives Arsenal a 56% chance of winning in normal time. But probability numbers mean little in a knockout game this close. What matters is which team makes the first big mistake and which one punishes it.

Neither side has ever won the Champions League. Arsenal's last final was 2006. They lost to Barcelona. Tonight is the closest they have been since.

Kick off is 8pm UK time.