Nigeria is projected to earn an additional N6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026. Petrol prices at the pump have risen by over 50 percent since February. The earnings and the pain are not going to the same place.

One forecast, from BMI, puts Nigeria's additional oil revenue for 2026 at N6.8 trillion. Crude above $100 a barrel is good for government receipts. Since the fuel subsidy was removed, the pass-through is direct. Global price rises. Pump price follows. Government revenue goes up. Transport fares, food costs, and delivery prices go up with the pump price.

The person running a bus route in Lagos or buying yam in Kano is not the beneficiary of the windfall. They are the mechanism by which the windfall's pressure travels downstream.

Where specifically the N6.8 trillion projection will be deployed has not been answered. Atiku asked part of this question in the reserves story above. This half of it is not being asked at all.