The opposition is consulting. The consultations are not yet producing anything the opposition doesn't already have.

On Monday evening, Peter Obi led a delegation of South-East leaders to the Maitama home of former President Goodluck Jonathan. The meeting lasted two hours. It was closed to the press. Among those present were former Enugu governor Okwesilize Nwodo, former Imo governor Achike Udenwa, ADC senators from the South-East, and other political associates.

When Obi spoke to journalists afterwards, he was careful. Jonathan wished the country well. Jonathan cannot support a one-party system. Jonathan has not endorsed anyone. When the time comes for endorsement, Obi will return.

That last line tells you everything about where things stand.

This is the second high-profile political meeting in two days. On Saturday, opposition figures including Atiku, Kwankwaso, and Rotimi Amaechi convened in Ibadan for the summit that produced the Ibadan Declaration. They pledged a united front, a single presidential candidate, and resistance to what they described as a drift toward one-party rule. On Monday, Obi was in Jonathan's living room. On Tuesday, Obi and Kwankwaso's camps are reportedly pushing northern leaders toward a joint ticket, with Obi offering a one-term presidency as the incentive.

The consultations are genuine. The movement is real. What is missing is an agreement.

The ADC primary is on May 23. That is less than four weeks away. The Ibadan Declaration produced a resolution. It did not produce a candidate. The Jonathan meeting produced a conversation. It did not produce an endorsement. The Obi-Kwankwaso joint ticket push is ongoing. It has not produced a confirmed alliance.

Nigerian opposition politics has a well-established pattern. Meetings happen. Declarations are signed. Figures consult elders. Then the primary arrives and everyone discovers that their coalition was built on the assumption that the other person would stand down.

Jonathan himself in 2015 agreed, eventually, to an election he lost. He is now being consulted by the people trying to replicate that result against a different incumbent. Whether he sees irony in that is not something anyone in the room asked out loud.

The voter in Borno or Plateau who is being told their state is too dangerous for campaigning is not part of any of these consultations. She was not at the Ibadan summit. She was not in the Maitama living room. Her name does not appear in any of the declarations.

The 2027 election is, according to everyone involved, about her. She knows that. She is watching to see when someone acts like it.