Wednesday 08 April, 2026
Nigeria is earning a windfall from oil. The pump price tells you who isn't.
A war Nigeria didn't start sent oil above $100 a barrel. The federation account is benefiting from every dollar above the $64.85 budget benchmark. At the same time, petrol has risen 82% since January and commuters in Abuja are spending 80% of their income on transport. The refinery that was supposed to buffer Nigerians from global price shocks. It is now the mechanism that transmits them.
The system is working. The costs land on the same person who absorbed the last set of costs. While that happens, Nigeria's political succession is already running, four police officers were killed defending a state that hasn't yet figured out how to hold territory, and a Central Bank directive arriving in 23 days will change how families receive money from abroad.
Let's dig deeper.
1. THE REFINERY WAS SUPPOSED TO CHANGE THIS
Africa's largest refinery supplies 60% of Nigeria's fuel. It has raised its gantry price nine times since January. Six up, three down -- each one following Brent crude as the Iran war pushes it past $100 a barrel.
The refinery solved Nigeria's supply problem. The problem it didn't solve: in a deregulated market, local production tracks global prices. The buffer the refinery was supposed to create is a transmission line instead.
What's the mechanism that makes a war in Tehran show up in a Lagos keke fare by Tuesday?
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2. THE SON COMES HOME
Muhammadu Buhari died in 2025. His son declared for a House of Representatives seat before the year of mourning was out.
Yusuf Buhari is running for the Sandamu/Daura/Mai'Adua constituency in Katsina under the APC. The state governor has endorsed him as his "anointed candidate." The party machine is already moving.
The 2027 election is taking shape. The names on the ballot look familiar.
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3. FOUR OFFICERS, ONE STATION, ONE NIGHT
ISWAP attacked the Nganzai Divisional Police Headquarters in Borno on April 4 using rocket-propelled grenades. They killed four officers, partially destroyed the building, and hit an IDP camp at Damasak in the same window.
ISWAP isn't just ambushing roads anymore. It's targeting the buildings that mark the state's presence in an LGA -- the places civilians run to.
What does an insurgency gain by burning a police station?
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4. YOU WILL STILL SEND DOLLARS. YOUR FAMILY WILL NOW GET NAIRA.
From May 1, a CBN directive ends dollar payouts on diaspora remittances. Western Union, Ria, MoneyGram, every IMTO operating in Nigeria -- all of them must route transfers through naira settlement accounts. Your family gets naira, at the regulated rate, into their bank account.
The CBN says this deepens forex transparency. What it also does is remove the option families had to receive dollars and convert at a rate that better reflected real value.
Is the official rate the one that protects what you're sending?
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5. THE NUMBER
N699 on January 1. N1,275 today. Nine weeks. Nine price adjustments.
Every movement tracked one thing: Brent crude.
Nobody in Nigeria started a war in the Middle East.
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6. THE WORLD BANK COUNTED NIGERIA'S CHILDREN
The World Bank published a Nigeria development report yesterday. GDP is growing at 4%. Inflation is down to 15.1%. Reserves are at $50 billion. And 40% of children under five are stunted.
The macroeconomy is improving. The reform dividend hasn't reached the homes where the children are.
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