Wednesday 08 April, 2026

The World Bank published a development report on Nigeria yesterday. It contains a number that deserves more attention than it will get.

Forty percent of Nigerian children under five are stunted. One hundred and ten per thousand die before their fifth birthday. More than half are not developmentally on track before they start school.

This is happening while Nigeria's economy grows at 4%. Inflation has fallen to 15.1%. External reserves stand at $50 billion, the highest in 13 years. The macroeconomic story is better than it has been in years. The early childhood story is not.

The World Bank's point is that macroeconomic stability and human capital development are not the same thing. You can stabilise an exchange rate without stabilising a child's nutrition. You can grow GDP without the growth reaching the families where that child lives. The reform dividend, the thing the pain of the last three years was supposed to eventually produce, has not yet arrived in the homes where 40% of the children are stunted. The World Bank's growth forecast of 4.2% through 2028 is cautiously optimistic. The children who are stunted at five cannot wait for 2028.

The macroeconomy improved. The children aren't in it yet.