₦900 TO ₦2,500. What the figure does not say.

Jet A1 aviation fuel more than doubled in 30 days. The number isn't the Iran war. It's the architecture.

Before February 28, Jet A1 aviation fuel sold for ₦900 to ₦995 per litre at Nigerian airports.

This week it's trading at ₦2,500 to ₦2,700.

That's a 170% increase in under 30 days. It's the most consequential single price movement in the Nigerian economy this month, touching airfares, manufacturing logistics, and generator operating costs simultaneously.

The simple reading is: Iran war. Oil above $100. Imported fuel gets expensive. All of that is true.

Here's what the number is hiding.

In early March, Nigeria's Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority quietly froze gasoline import licenses. Dangote Refinery was supplying 92% of Nigeria's fuel. The importers who had previously provided an alternative supply channel had their licenses suspended. TotalEnergies, Conoil, MRS. The justification was that domestic refining had reached sufficiency.

Then on February 28, the war started.

Crude jumped above $100 per barrel. Dangote Refinery, which sources crude internationally, raised its gantry price four times in March. There was no alternative supplier to compete with. No import license to activate. No buffer.

Jet A1 doesn't come from Dangote Refinery in meaningful volumes. But the logic is the same. Nigeria removed its supply diversity exactly when a global shock arrived. A country with multiple suppliers absorbs the shock across them. A country with one supplier absorbs the entire shock alone. Nigeria has no domestic jet fuel production at scale. So it absorbed it alone.

The Philippines is importing Russian crude for the first time in five years because they needed an alternative and found one. Nigeria is recalculating fares.

The Iran war raised the number. The architecture decided how high it would go.