Nigeria froze import licenses in March. Then the Middle East war arrived.

Nigeria is Africa's largest crude oil producer. Between February 23 and March 16, it also recorded one of the sharpest petrol price increases in the world: nearly 40%. Qatar, also an oil exporter, recorded 2.7% over the same period.

That gap isn't just about the Iran war. It's about a decision made before the war started.

In early March, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority quietly froze the issuance of gasoline import licenses. The official reason: domestic refining capacity had reached sufficiency. Dangote Refinery was supplying 92% of Nigeria's fuel in February. Companies like TotalEnergies, Conoil, and MRS, which together imported 38% of Nigeria's gasoline in January, had their licenses suspended.

Then on February 28, the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed to normal tanker traffic. Global crude jumped to near $120 a barrel. Dangote Refinery, which sources much of its crude on international markets, raised its gantry price four times in March alone: from N774 to N875, then N995, then N1,175, and now N1,245 per litre.

There was nobody else to buy from.

Aliko Dangote had argued for years that import licenses were undermining local refining. He took the regulator to court over it. He later withdrew the case after relations with the government improved. Then, in March 2026, the licenses were frozen. Bloomberg's headline on March 12 put it plainly: "Aliko Dangote gets what he wants."

The refinery's defenders have a point: without Dangote, Nigeria would be even more exposed to this shock. The country spent decades importing refined products, draining foreign exchange, and building nothing. The refinery is real infrastructure. It matters.

But a market with one supplier isn't a market. It's a managed supply. And managed supply, when a shock arrives, has no pressure valve.

A fuel market analyst told Daily Post this week that the price of imported petrol was lower than locally produced petroleven before the war. The import freeze removed that floor. Then the war removed the ceiling.

The argument for protecting local refining is legitimate. Nigeria shouldn't be importing forever. But there's a difference between protecting an industry to build competition and handing a single private actor control of a $10 billion annual market with no countervailing force.

You're currently paying up to N1,330 per litre in parts of Abuja. Your transport costs went up. Your generator costs went up. Everything that moves by road got more expensive.

When the price moved in March, it didn't move because of competition. It moved because one decision met one supplier. And you were not part of either.

That's not just the Iran war. That's also March 10, when the licenses were frozen and the decision about what you'd pay was made for you.