Petrol is N1,300 at most stations on the day families needed it most. Here's how that happened.

Eid is a travel day.

Families move. People go home to parents, drive to prayer grounds, visit relatives across states. The fuel that powers those journeys costs more today than it did at the start of Ramadan.

Petrol hit N1,300 per litre at most retail stations this week, up from roughly N1,050 before the Iran war began on February 28. Dangote Refinery issued a new gantry price of N1,175 on March 10 — then reduced it by N100 to N1,075 — but most filling stations haven't passed that reduction on to you. The gap between what the refinery charges marketers and what you pay at the pump is where the system takes its cut.

The mechanism is straightforward. Nigeria still imports the majority of its refined fuel. Crude oil has been trading above $100 per barrel since the Iran war began. Higher crude means higher refined product landing costs. Higher landing costs mean the price you see at the filling station goes up. The irony is that higher crude also means higher revenue for the Nigerian government on every barrel it exports. The state profits from the same oil shock that empties your wallet at the pump.

The federal government's 2026 budget was built on oil at $64.85 per barrel. Crude is trading around $102. That's a windfall above $37 per barrel flowing into government accounts. There's no supplementary budget. No formal acknowledgment that the assumptions have changed so dramatically they require a legal response. The Fiscal Responsibility Act requires one. It hasn't happened.

What it means for you today: the families celebrating Eid in Ibadan, Kano, Owerri, and Port Harcourt are paying a premium for the celebration. Transport costs are up. Generator fuel costs are up. The power sector debt crisis means the generators are running more than usual. All of it compounds on the same day.

The Dangote reduction to N1,075 at the gantry should eventually flow through to pump prices. "Eventually" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.