US-Israel strikes on Iran drove Brent to $110. Your pump price didn't wait for an explanation.

On February 28, the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's daily oil supply passes, effectively closed.

Brent crude went from roughly $70 before the war to above $110 within two weeks. At the pump in Lagos and Abuja, the price that was ₦880 per litre climbed to ₦1,200 and in some places ₦1,300. Dangote's gantry price swung from ₦874 all the way up to ₦1,175, then pulled back to ₦1,075 as of March 10 as crude prices wobbled slightly.

The Dangote Refinery's MD says Nigeria won't run out of fuel because the refinery can supply the domestic market. That part is true. But "won't run out" isn't the same as "affordable." The refinery buys crude at international market prices. When Brent is at $110, the gantry price follows. That's deregulation. You get volatility instead of scarcity.

The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves on March 11 to calm markets. Nigeria's 2026 budget was built on $64.85 per barrel. The gap between that and $110 is paper revenue for the government. It won't reach your pocket.

Here's the thing nobody is saying clearly. Nigeria is an oil producer. The war that's burning your transport budget is, technically, making the government richer on paper. The people who benefit from high oil prices are not the same people paying ₦1,300 per litre. They never are.