Bills were falling from April. The July forecast just jumped £160 because of the same war hitting Nigerian pumps

Two weeks ago, the news was good. Ofgem confirmed the UK energy price cap would fall in April from £1,758 to £1,641. Seventeen pounds a month back in your pocket. After years of energy bill pressure, something was finally moving in the right direction.

Then the US and Israel struck Iran.

Cornwall Insight, the UK's most reliable energy forecaster, now says the July cap could hit £1,801, £160 above April, because wholesale gas prices have surged since 28 February. Before the strikes, they expected July at around £1,645. That projection is gone.

The mechanism is the same one burning Nigerian pump prices. Strait of Hormuz disruption pushes global gas prices up. UK bills follow wholesale gas. You're thousands of miles from the Gulf, but you're inside the same supply chain.

Ofgem confirms the July cap on 27 May. That's your window. If you're on a standard variable tariff, check fixed-rate deals now — many are currently priced below the existing £1,758 cap. Use MoneySuperMarket or Uswitch. It takes ten minutes and could lock you in before the July revision arrives. The April saving is still real. Take it. But plan for July.